what's my scene-ario?

In the course of preparing a talk last week, I ran across this piece of scenario development sponsored by the Business Council of Australia. I was surprised I hadn't heard of Aspire Australia before, as I do try to keep up with these sorts of things.

I'm also usually a bit suspicious of scenarios, mainly because they seem to be a bit of a 'must-do' for all sorts of organisations, but then there is no follow through. That is to say, they devote resources to building the scenarios but then don't use any of the findings in their strategic planning. Everyone cites BP's experience (even those who claim that the subsequent strategic change and rebranding was just greenwash), but how many organisations have done scenario development and then left them on the shelf?

All that said, the three scenarios produced here are quite appealing in that they reflect trends that we can see, attitudes to which we can relate and provide a reasonable basis for any subsequent planning and action. The three are, in the BCA's own words:

1. 
   Riding the Wave explores the consequences of a breakdown in trust between people and institutions. It is a story about reform fatigue and complacency. In this scenario a loss of faith in institutions eventually undermines Australia's capacity to grow. A lack of long-term, focused investment and reform results in economic decline and social crises, ultimately leading to a reexamination of our political structures. In Riding the Wave, global prosperity is no guarantee of prosperity for Australia. Efficient and effective Government and trust between people and institutions are critical to building the capacity of the nation.
2. 
   Stormy Seas focuses on Australia's international relationships. It explores Australia's policy options in a future where there is a sustained decline in Asia Pacific stability and security. Regional instability challenges Australia's international and economic relations. Australians become more nationalistic, more cohesive - they are more tolerant towards difference within Australia, but at the same time cocooned in their view of the rest of the world. While it is stressed that this is only one possible story about how these relationships might evolve, the Stormy Seas scenario presents a difficult future for Australia.
3. 
   Changing the Crew examines the social dimension of change in Australia - in particular the potential value tensions within and between generations as baby boomers, who have dominated Australia's policies and values, are moving into retirement in unprecedented numbers. In Changing the Crew, a new generation of pioneers creates a sharper-edged Australia, resulting in friction with other generations. Australians are more strongly connected with the rest of the world than ever before, economically and culturally.

I'd usually be a bit suspicious of the BCA in any exercise such as this as it is an organisation best known, I feel, for aggressively pursuing its own interests to the detriment of other sections of society. Big Business, and so on, you understand. However, in this case the scenarios provide food for thought across the board. There's the usual incessant references to globalisation, of course, with the also usual assumption that it's an irreversible trend. Those who forget the lessons of history, etc, I say.

But when you look at the list of eminent Australians who participated, it is a very representative list of both broad and sectional interests and the scenarios reflect not only a substantial and careful process to develop them, but also can be understood as having emanated from those who took part, ie there is no obvious overlaying of any agendas (econo-gabble excepted, as I have said).

My interest was particularly piqued by "Changing the Crew", as Gen X/Gen Y and their impacts on the country are a special fascination of mine, dating back to Hugh Mackay's Generations. This mainly comes about because offspring no 1 and offspring no 2 are on the Gen x/Gen y cusp, but also because as time goes on, the people in the units I have led are increasingly Gen Y. I've found I need to work hard to get comfortable with their frames of reference and that the assumptions I lazily make on their behalf are nearly always wrong. One way I have found to bridge the understanding gap is through being actively involved in the mentoring program that the organisation where I work runs for its new graduates. I've been lucky to have had a series of grads as mentorees with whom I've been able to forge good relationships, so that we can discuss generational difference issues and each party gets something that they can take back to the workplace.

But I also feel that the pace of change in all areas of life, particularly technology, has the potential to drive unnecessary wedges between the generations that could be avoided with a little effort by all parties. For those who follow the random scribblings here, you will have seen that occasionally I try to do a piece on my experiences in running a blog. To what extent is blogging - and similar trends such as podcasts etc - the new medium of exchange? What do they give us that other mediums of communication don't? What, if anything, do we lose from not using other mechanisms? Like talking to each other...

To be continued.